Finding a Value Bet in the 2016 UEFA Champions League Final
For the 2nd time in three years Diego Simeone’s group of starving underdogs is dealing with Real Madrid in an attempt to get their name on the Champions League trophy for the first time. Mark Taylor looks at past data to determine where there is more betting value: in the outright or 90 minute markets? Continue reading to learn.
The San Siro in Milan stages a reprise of the 2013/14 UEFA Champions League final on May 28th, when cross city rivals Real and Atletico Madrid satisfy in the last distinguished match of the European club season.
Although Real were ultimately definitive 4-1 winners in the 2013/14 final, the match was carefully poised throughout the preliminary 90 minutes and Real required an injury time equaliser to take the match into additional time.
Champions League data
They’ve been generally low scoring affairs, with 7 of the ten meetings having less than 2.5 total goals.
More recently Real has been the more remarkable of the 2 sides in working out the group and knockout stages of this season’s Champions League competition.
They lost just once to Wolfsburg in the first leg of the quarter finals, winning nine and drawing 2 during their progress to the final and played in a normally competitive Group A that contained PSG and subsequent Europa League semi-finalists, Shakhtar Donetsk.[content-egg module=Youtube template=custom/slider]
Considering that the 2013/14 final the two groups have actually fulfilled in 10 domestic and European competitions, where Atletico controlled, winning half of their conferences and losing just once.
On the other hand, Atletico has made great use of the forgiving nature of both the group and two legged knockout phase of the Champions league. A six match group stage enabled them to proceed as a seeded side to the knockout stage, regardless of a loss and draw to Benfica and Astana, respectively.
Two additional losses in the knockout round versus Barcelona and Bayern Munich, combined with a goalless, two legged conference won on charges versus PSV sees Atletico as perhaps a below par finalist.
However, their record of 6 wins, three draws and 3 loses might merely show Diego Simeone’s pragmatic approach to certification and undoubtedly almost half of the finalists over the previous years have lost two or more matches throughout their trip to the last game.
More usefully, in a current age of Spanish club dominance, we do have an almost complete season of La Liga matches to compare the two Madrid groups. As I write the two teams are in a three-way fight with Barcelona to raise the title with simply 2 rounds of matches staying.
La Liga stats
Generally, both Real and Barcelona owe much of their domestic success to a powerful attack. Both have actually scored more than 100 goals this term. Whereas Atletico’s title difficulty is based securely around a group defence that has conceded simply 16 goals, half the amount allowed by their neighbours.
With two matches to play, Real’s 105 goals scored and 32 permitted from 36 matches eclipses Atletico’s respective 60 and 16, especially in terms of objective distinction that historically relates highly to league points won.
The matching numbers for Atletico are scoring rates of 1.22 times league average and acknowledging rates of 0.32 times.
It promises that Real’s attack will find it hard to break down Simeone’s layered defence and by integrating the defensive and assaulting rates of each team we should not anticipate either group to average more than a goal each in such encounters.
Historically, this is supported by the previous 10 conferences, where Real’s typical variety of goals scored is simply 0.5 compared to one for Atletico and just when has a side scored more than two goals in a video game.
Betting in outright or 90 minutes markets?
If we use these rate matches in a Poisson, Atletico emerge narrow favourites over 90 minutes, winning 36% of the time as compared to 33% genuine and 31% the draw.
After analysing the previous 10 matches between Real and Atletico in a Poisson, Atletico emerges slim favourites over 90 minutes, winning 36% of the time, compared to 33% genuine and 31% for the draw.
We can likewise utilise the Champions League matches played this season by the two finalists.
The later phases of the European club competitions, especially the leading competition has actually been mainly controlled by groups from the big 5 leagues of England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France and if we consist of domestic league video games we can develop up a fairly sized sample of matches in between such elite groups over the existing season.
Real has played 19 such video games and Atletico 16 against the similarity AS Roma, PSG, Manchester City and Bayern Munich, in addition to their domestic La Liga video games.
Although these components do not involve each team playing all possible challengers which may result in stamina of schedule problems, there will suffice security kind lines to represent this.
Both Real and Atletico has a favorable objective distinction in these matches against the very best club groups in Europe and when the quality of opposition is made up it is Atletico who once again emerge as marginally the superior group.
They have played Barcelona four times, two times locally and twice in the knockout phase of the Champions League as well as Bayern Munich two times. Probably the two best current European club groups.
Peak’s existing probabilities a little favour Real, both in the outright market (1.729 *) and 90 minutes market (2.42 *). But for those siding with Atletico to win the Champions League (2.23 *) or over 90 minutes (3.34 *), there is a lot of current indications that indicate Diego Simeone and his team acquiring compensation for their near miss in 2013/14.
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