2016 United States Open: How many aces will be served?

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August 24, 2016

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2016 United States Open: How many aces will be served? – Predicting the number of aces at the 2016 US Open

Serving an ace is among the most popular stats in tennis and an excellent way for a player to steal easy points. With the United States Open around the corner, the number of aces should we be anticipating in the upcoming Grand Slam? Tennis professional, Dan Weston, at Pinnacle bookmaker takes a look at past information to discover exactly what statistics suggest.

We can see that the variety of aces varied from 1,894 in 2011, to 2,771 in 2015, with the six-year mean figure being 2354.17. There is a slight general pattern for the number of aces in case to increase which's logical provided that there is a really minor greater serve orientated player dynamic in the last few years.

It's likewise completely rational that there is a relationship between the service hold percentage and number of aces per game. In the 4 years where the service hold portion was above 79%, the variety of aces per game was highest at 0.53 or higher.

Moreover, it is possible to see that with the mean aces per video game over the six-year period being 0.53 and the mean service hold portion being 78.3%, there is approximately 147.74 service hold portion points to one ace per game.

For example, if we expect the mean service hold portion to be 70%, the anticipated aces per game would be 0.47 (70/147.74), whereas if we expected the mean service hold portion to be 80%, we ‘d expect the aces per game figure to be 0.54 (80/147.74).

Aces served in 2015 and 2016

Provided this, we can take a look at the entry lists for 2015 and 2016, and aim to forecast the variety of aces based on this, using comparable ratios. Effectively, if we understand the mean combined hold portion for the entry list in 2015, we can then compute the same expectation for those with direct entry in 2016.

The mean combined hold portion for direct entrants in 2015 was 79.04% and these gamers balanced 0.51 aces per game. This is nearly similar to the real service hold percentage of 79.1%, although 0.63 aces per game were really yielded in 2015.

However, this might well be an outlier, given that no other year resembled that figure, as seen in the very first table above. Definitely the 0.51 aces per game to 79.1% mean hold portion expectation is really similar to the 2010, 2012 and 2014 figures.

Forecasting the variety of aces for the 2016 US Open

The anticipated aces per game in the 2016 direct entry list is still 0.51, however the expected hold percentage has risen to 79.22%, from the 79.04% in the 2015 direct entry list. On this basis, we can say that this year's field is only a little most likely to be serve-orientated in contrast to last year.

Using the ratio discussed above, we can anticipate 0.536 aces per game with an expected hold portion of 79.22%, whilst in the first table we saw that the average variety of games in the men's occasion from 2010-2015 was 4,425.

Increasing the average variety of games by the anticipated aces per game, we generate a figure of 2371.8 aces expectation in the 2016 US Open; a shade over the 2354.2 mean figure from 2010-2015.

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